Karl Altau: The Holiday NDAA

Karl Altau / JBANC

Following the midterm elections and the Thanksgiving break, the United States Congress is back in action, finishing up business for the year, and this 117th Session of Congress. The new 118th Congress starts its two-year cycle on January 3.

This is the third article in a series this year about the importance of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with respect to U.S. security assistance to the Baltic countries – and Ukraine – and the evolution of this year’s process. We’re now in mid-December and have reached the nitty-gritty and the imminent passage of the final bill, which has passed every year since 1961.

A completed NDAA and Omnibus funding bill for the holidays would indeed be something to cheer about.

The immediate and most pressing order of business for Congress is agreeing to an extension of the current Continuing Resolution (CR), which is due to expire December 16. As of submission of this article, Congress had not yet agreed to a stopgap funding bill, which would keep government running. The current odds are that this will be a short-term extension. Agreement could then be reached by December 23 and provide enough time to address final differences and settle on a longer-term funding bill, or Omnibus. The Omnibus appropriations package would likely include tens of billions of dollars in new aid to Ukraine. If the CR is extended into 2023, that would give the incoming House Republican majority an opportunity to project their new weight on future proceedings.

The other major bit of unfinished business at the time of writing is passage of the 2023 NDAA.

A compromise version of the 4408-page NDAA, formally known as the ‘‘James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023’’ was agreed to by the U.S. House of Representatives on December 8 by a vote of 350-80. The Senate began final consideration of the bill on December 14 and it will likely be finished by publication of this article. As far as the Baltics, focus has been securing a blueprint for strong funding for the Baltic Security Initiative (BSI), which has provided approximately $250 million to strengthen security for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. An earlier amendment supporting multi-year support for the BSI was not adopted into a so-called manager’s package, a tool to bunch together noncontroversial amendments in hopes that the Senate adopt them as a bloc by unanimous consent.

Without specific funding levels outlined in the NDAA, the options for support remain fluid. The primary section affecting the Baltics countries is found under Title 12, Sec. 1272 – “Sense of Congress on NATO and United States Defense Posture in Europe,” and states: “Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania play a critical role in strategic efforts to continue to deter Russia.

The United States should continue to pursue efforts consistent with the comprehensive, multilateral Baltic Defense Assessment conducted by the Department of Defense. Robust support to accomplish United States strategic objectives, including by providing continued assistance to the Baltic countries through security cooperation, including cooperation referred to as the Baltic Security Initiative pursuant to sections 332 and 333 of title 10, United States Code, should continue to be prioritized in the years to come. Specifically, such assistance should include the continuation of—(A) enhancements to critical capabilities that will strengthen Baltic security as well as strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense posture, including integrated air and missile defense, maritime domain awareness, long-range precision fires, and command and control; (B) efforts to enhance interoperability among Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and with NATO; (C) infrastructure and other host-country support improvements that will enhance United States and allied military mobility across the region; (D) efforts to improve resilience to hybrid and cyber threats in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and (E) support for planning and budgeting efforts of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that are regionally synchronized.

While such support is certainly important for authorizing critical funding to the Baltic countries, it does not specify outlays, as is maintained, by comparison, in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative which is authorized for $800 million in the FY23 NDAA. One of the main functions of this assistance to Ukraine is to help procure weapons to help Ukraine fight against the ongoing Russian invasion. To emphasize what’s at stake, Section 1272 of the NDAA begins by stating that “The Russian Federation’s further invasion of Ukraine poses a grave threat to United States security and interests around the globe and to the rules-based international order, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).” The need can’t be any clearer than that. Russia’s aggression is a grave national security threat to the United States and its allies.

While Baltic security funding as part of the NDAA is not drawn out in specific figures, there may be other opportunities for attaining funding before the end of the year. One such avenue is through the appropriations process. A good sign was support from the Senate Appropriations Committee, which on July 28 released its recommendation to increase the BSI to $255.5 million in 2023.

Foreign Military Financing (FMF) funding for the Baltics was given a new boost when the administration announced in September that a new measure marked for Ukraine would also benefit U.S. allies in the region. Congress liked what it saw and appropriated about $1 billion to go to Ukraine and additional amounts to be divided among countries, including Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, that have provided significant assistance to Ukraine. The State Department stated that the funds will help those countries “deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity” by enhancing their military integration with NATO and countering “Russian influence and aggression.”

Grants of between $140-$150 million for each Baltic country are being provided, which includes funding to help backfill military capabilities. For Estonia that means grant funding in the amount of $140.5 million. In addition, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are in the process of purchasing High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) – which has proven so effective in Ukraine – along with anti-ship missiles, Blackhawk helicopters, and other weapons systems as part of foreign military sales agreements.

The Baltic countries are solid allies. Investing in their defense will reap rewards long into the future. Whatever the outcome as stipulated in the legislation, the U.S.-Baltic relationship remains strong going into 2023 – along with support for Ukraine.