Foreign Minister Urmas Paet reminded us of an issue that has completely disappeared from the agenda: new rounds of EU enlargement.
Despite the changes of guard in Athens and Rome, Europe is still desperately trying to overcome its biggest crisis since the end of World War II, to use German Chancellor Merkel’s pompous words. The almighty and all-knowing rating agencies are not impressed by the vigorous statements made by crisis managers Mr. Papademos and Mr. Monti. European Commissioner Rehn spoke discouraging words about the economies of Belgium, Po-land and other member states. And even the Nether-lands, traditionally considered to be an economic stronghold i.e. a solid outpost of the Bundesbank, are facing rising bond yields.
Therefore, it is not surprising that this pivotal topic has do-minated the headlines for months now – first things first. However, European integration is more than just financial crisis management. Other topics, such as further development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy – how to speak in one voice with 27 members, in a rapidly changing world – and the Common Energy Policy – how to prevent future derailments such as Nord Stream – are still of crucial importance too.
Urmas Paet, Estonia’s longest-serving foreign minister ever, recently reminded us of a third issue, an issue that has completely disappeared from the agenda: new rounds of EU enlargement. Estonia has never concealed that in its view, the European Neigh-bourhood Policy is not enough to intensify relations with adjacent countries and regions. The ENP was a typical compromise between the northern and eastern EU member states on the one hand, and the southern ones on the other. Yet, one has to admit that a policy that is trying to combine Morocco with Belarus will hardly yield tangible results. From that point of view, the introduction of the so-called Eastern Partnership in 2008 was a major step forward. A pity, though, that the "Club Med" has never displayed any real enthusiasm for the Partnership – French President Sarkozy even stayed away from the inaugu-ral summit in Prague in May 2009.
Paet, who himself sugges-ted to add a special, separate dimension to the eastern "wing" of the ENP in July 2008, and other leading Estonian politicians have repeatedly stressed that initiatives like these cannot be an alternative to the higher aim of EU membership; if a former Soviet brother like Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and, after dictator Lukashenka’s retirement, Belarus has serious ambitions to join the most successful European organization ever, they have every right to make their wish come true. The same goes for the Balkan stragglers, remote Iceland and great power Turkey.
Is this a matter of sheer idealism and filling a niche – Estonia, that successfully transformed itself after 1991, profiling itself as a "guiding nation" and a hyperactive small EU member state? As President Meri already put it in 1992: "Estonia is currently developing models that, I may hope, within ten or twenty years time will go on Eastern European paths that are still being overgrown by forests."
Reality is more complex. Like every other country on earth, Estonia is familiar with the phenomenon of Realpoli-tik. It wants Ukraine, Moldova and its soulmate Georgia to remain out of the suffocating tentacles of the Russian octopus. Closer cooperation with and, the next step, integration in the European Union are indispensible to strengthen liberal democracy, the free market, the rule of law and civil society in these fragile, vulnerable republics – the Great Satan in the East will not hesitate to make play with their weaknesses. As to Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania: they are sharing Estonia’s pro-Atlantic instinct, which might be useful to offer some counterweight to those postmodern Old European minds who are less convinced that Washington should play a lasting role in Europe’s security architecture. Turkey offers an alternative route for the transfer of gas and oil from the Caucasus and Central Asia. EU accession could be a useful means to forestall a Turkish-Russian rapprochement, which might undermine Estonia’s ongoing quest for non-Russian natural resources.
Estonia’s deeper intentions are clear and understandable, but how about the implementation? This will be far more problematic. Croatia was given a go-ahead for accession in 2013 last June. Iceland might have a narrow escape, although this will depend on the pace of the country’s economic recovery (it is still quite remarkable that Iceland only applied for EU membership after its economy, i.e. banking sector made a hard landing).
Some of the other countries have constructively ruined their own chances, like Ukraine (as even Estonian observers have noticed) and Georgia that, ironically, will have to give up on the territories it sought to reconquer and then lost in 2008, if it wants to have any prospect of joining the EU (not to mention NATO) at all. Turkey has manifested itself as an assertive, self-conscious regional power that certainly will not be tamed by Brussels policy-makers – Turkish EU accession will simply blow up the Common Foreign and Security Policy, something CFSP protagonist France and CFSP antagonist Great Britain are most aware of. And is Turkey, that, contrary to its former colony Greece, has been making significant economic achievements, still interested in joining the EU? The idea of the remaining Balkan republics sitting down at the conference tables in Brussels will undoubtedly evoke fierce resistance among the Western European electorates – who are already seeing Romanian and Bulgarian EU accession as an unforgivable mistake.
Estonia, no matter how admirable its self-proclaimed role as advocate of Europe’s eastern and southeastern flanks is, will have to take these factors into account. It will have to accept that for most Western European countries, EU enlargement is no priority, not now (with the euro crisis) and not in the near future. After letting in Croatia and Iceland the door will be closed. Recognizing this unpleasant truth would also be a form of Realpolitik.
Jeroen Bult is a Dutch historian and publicist, living in Tallinn
ERR News
