Overview Of Current Developments Affecting The Baltics
EANC, JBANC and State Department representatives discuss Baltic policy. From left: Ausma Tomsevics, Carol Werner, Nathaniel Dean, Kathleen Bresnahan, Karin Shuey, Ilze Garoza, Peter Blumberg, Marju Rink-Abel
Estonian American National Council representatives joined Baltic colleagues for a briefing from the State Department’s Baltic team on Friday, February 19. The Director of Nordic and Baltic Affairs, Nathaniel Dean, and desk officers for Estonia, Kathleen Bresnahan, and Lithuania, Carol Werner, shared their insights on policy and current and upcoming events focused on U.S.-Baltic cooperation.
The Baltic region is starting the year with a high level of diplomatic engagement. From the visit in January by Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland to the meeting in April of the Nordic-Baltic Eight’s foreign ministers in Riga, and many lower-profile events in between, State Department attention on the Baltics is intense. The posting of career diplomats as ambassadors in all three countries, rather than political appointees, is also a clear signal that the U.S. sees the importance of professional diplomacy to ensure solid collaboration leading up to the July NATO Summit in Warsaw and beyond.
Funding for the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) was an important topic of discussion. President Obama introduced this budget appropriation in 2014 to reassure our NATO allies of the U.S. commitment to member nations’ security and territorial integrity. This year’s allocation of nearly $800 million was quadrupled for 2017 to $3.4 billion. While specific distribution of the funds is not yet decided, they are intended for increased U.S. presence, exercises, prepositioning of equipment, infrastructure improvements, and building partner capacity throughout the alliance. In the Baltics, this would include equipment, training and improving existing facilities to ensure they are ready to host deployments of allied troops. The funding has received wide bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress.
The State representatives expressed a high level of confidence in the effectiveness of these planned measures. The focus is on deterrence of any possible Russian aggression through increased NATO presence along its eastern borders, equipment that reinforces the deterrent capability, and building strong relationships throughout the alliance. One example is Assistant Secretary Nuland’s effort to expand the rotational presence of companies in the Baltics by getting more of the allies involved, similar to the ongoing air policing mission.
The State Department is taking seriously the recent Rand Corporation study that predicted Russian forces could overtake Tallinn or Riga in 60 hours or less. The report was characterized as “eye-opening and concerning.” The steps that ERI is making will help position the U.S. to respond faster. At the same time, whether Russia will make conventional moves in the Baltics is questionable, and redefining what constitutes an attack that would invoke Article V of the NATO treaty is an ongoing discussion leading up to the Warsaw Summit.
On the topic of sanctions against Russia, U.S. policy’s firm adherence to the measures laid out in the Minsk II agreement was underscored. While Russia has tried to introduce countersanctions and gain leverage with European countries who would like to see the sanctions lifted for economic reasons, they have so far been met with resistance.
In the meantime, there are several efforts underway beyond military reinforcement. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been working with border security forces while the European Union is also investing in securing its eastern frontier. Estonia has invested $70 million in border improvements and is engaged with DHS in training and guidance. State is conducting public diplomacy efforts and sponsoring English lessons for the Russian-speaking population to increase their access to Western media and information sources, which seem to be well-received among the Russian speaking community.
While there are still many areas of concern that affect the Baltic region, to include Russian non-compliance with Minsk II, corruption in Russian and Ukrainian government and banking systems, and the shortage of rational behavior coming out of Moscow, the overall tone of the meeting was cautious optimism. The U.S. and NATO are very concerned about Baltic security. They are committed to realistically assessing and responding to the Russian threat with measured and effective means of deterrence. Time will tell if the intense diplomatic engagement and resources dedicated in the process are successful in influencing the future of the region.
Karin Shuey
