Estonia in 1940 and Ukrai-ne in 2014 and 2022 – the similarities are remarkably striking.
In June 1940, the Soviet Union invaded and occupied the independent countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as foreseen by the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Communist Russia and Nazi Germany.
Blatantly rigged “parliamentary elections” were held in which only candidates belonging to the Working People’s Union were allowed to run for the seats of the Chamber of Deputies (Riigikogu).
Predictably, the Working People’s Union won all 80 seats, with 92.8% of the votes cast. The remaining 7.2% were declared invalid. Thereafter the “People’s Riigikogu” declared the Estonian SSR on July 21, and requested admission to the Soviet Union. Moscow approved the request on August 6, 1940.
The same scenario was played out in all three Baltic states. The three were then annexed into the Soviet Union as “constituent republics” in August 1940.
Mirroring the events of over 70 years ago, Russia invaded, occupied and annexed the Crimean Peninsula as the world looked on. Initially Russia denied that its troops were involved in the Crimean invasion. But Putin eventually admitted deploying his military to strengthen the Crimean “self-defence” force.
More specifically, in February 2014, Russian military captured strategic objectives across Crimea and installed a pro-Moscow proxy administration, ran a Crimean status referendum, then declared Crimea’s independence in March and subsequently incorporated Crimea. After annexation, Russia bolstered its military in the peninsula and made nuclear threats to back its presence there.
In September 2014 the process was repeated in four regions of Ukraine, the Russian puppet “states” of the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, as well as the Russian-appointed military administrations of Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Ob-last. It was nearly a carbon copy of the Crimean annexation – invade the region, organize a referendum while dismissing all international protest and annexing the territories anyway. Crimea was taken with few casualties and total Russian control.
The Russian-installed officials’ sham referendums differed from the Baltic annexations in that Russia did not fully control any of the four regions. Now Russia defines them as Russian territory with the Kremlin stating that the parts of the annexed oblasts not under Russian control have to be “liberated”.
One notes that the fake referendums in the four Donbas regions voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. It harkens back to Estonia in 1940 where the occupying Soviets conducted the Riigikogu elections with 100% favouring candidates proposing joining the Soviet Union. Not surprisingly, the Donbas figures released by the Kremlin were 99%, 98%, 93% and 87%.
There’s nothing mysterious about the results. They were expected. How could it be otherwise if one is summoned to the ballot box by men with guns knocking at your door forcing you to fill out a ballot as they watched. That’s how it’s possible to conduct a referendum on territory that’s only partially occupied and still a war zone.
What is mysterious is the suffocating size of the Moscow victory. Observers, veterans as international election scrutineers, indicate that amateur conductors of bogus votes go for maximum results. Profes-sionals are satisfied with more believable margins.
It’s said that dictators are known to take the extraordinary step of rigging elections downward when their collaborators have stuffed ballot boxes too enthusiastically. But Putin’s disdain for international opinion had him use politically unsophisticated organizers. We must remember that Russians have a solid history of being election-rigging aficionados.
As of this writing, Ukraine is making steady gains in re-claiming its territory. A significant part of the local population has fled since Russia invaded on February 24.
The referendums are deemed by the United Nations to have been carried out in violation of the UN Charter and illegal under international law. With his usual contempt for international norms, Putin has indicated that attacks against occupied areas of Ukraine are in essence attacks on Russia itself.
The territories have been ratified by the Duma as part of Russia. With this, Putin’s anti-Western rhetoric has reached a new level with his menacing comment, that the current Ukrainian counter-offensive is an attack on Russia and that all weapons at his disposal could be used to protect Russian territory.
Some observers are convinced that the Kremlin never expected the referendums to be accepted internationally. In fact, the director of Russia’s International Affairs Council has actually said:
“…in the Kremlin, they count on the patriotic feelings of the Russian population, that this would help the leadership to maintain a high approval rating and the society to accept the costs associated with the special military operation.”
Thus, Russia is anticipating to generate a positive response from its population which will in itself validate the continued conflict and embolden Putin’s aggressiveness.
Are the hundreds of thousands of draft-age men who have already escaped mobilization and abandoned their patriotic feelings now having a change of heart in “defending” an illegally expanded (probably temporarily) Russian empire?
The setbacks in Ukraine coupled with the draft dodgers’ massive dash for the border must bring unavoidable frustration and also deep humiliation for the Kremlin. Under this stress will a delusional Putin and his cowering advisers ever face reality?
Laas Leivat
As appeared in
Eesti Elu / Estonian Life)
